This article is a 2-parter that I first created as a discussion over at the forum, so you may add comments here or head over to the forum and revive the discussion.
http://mlcforum.theherosspouse.com/index.php?topic=2170.0;all

Hope, Expectations & Probability Part I

I am writing this to follow-up on something I posted on a thread.

…the reality is that most LBSs here will probably not reconcile with their spouses.
But the goal is that through the support and education we offer, we will gradually increase those odds of reconciliation. So right now it may the odds may be stacked against, but as we all learn the best ways to Stand and interact with MLCers and focus on Self, we will have more and more reconciliation success stories. And that may be contagious because when there are few successes there are higher doubts; so when your friend reaches reconciliation, you may have an easier time believing you can or will too.

I know that initial statement bothered some of you; it’s scary.  Here is an excerpt from my article Stories and Human Behavior.

If you are the typical LBS, after a while you will believe your marriage will not survive, often because your MLCer is just one of those stubborn ones who once he makes a decision, he won’t change it. …An MLCer may become stuck, but those are the rare cases. More common is for a person to regret their actions—often when they are too late because the spouse has closed the opportunity for marital reconciliation.

One of the main reasons some of you will not recover your marriages is because you will change your mind about Standing. You may give up, feeling defeated and as though you failed (though let’s hope not) or you may change your mind about wanting to be married to your MLCer. You may also determine that your MLCer is likely to not return and though you will remain willing to consider if they are interested and you are available, you would like to expand your dating market; you want a romantic relationship with someone, even if that someone is a new person. I did not say you would not recover your marriage because your MLCer would not want to recover it.

Choosing to stop Standing is not failure.
Choosing to seek a new relationship with a new person is not failure.
Choosing to Stand as a Covenant Keeper even if your spouse does not return is not failure.
Success comes in many varieties.

In my early days I spread the 80% statistic. I heard from a chat leader at Jim Conway’s chat that Jim said 80% of MLCers will return—or will want to return. I was unable to clarify whether it meant 80% of marriages recovered or that 80% of the MLCers wanted to reconcile—even though some spouses refused. Finally I asked Jim about that statistic and he said it was not something that came from him and he did not know where it came from. Basically it was a statistic without a source and likely was a bit of anecdotal wishful thinking. I would love for that statistic to be true—or even a higher rate. But not only do I have no evidence to support it, I no longer think it is close to the reality. Why? Standing is hard and as I said already, many of you will come to a place where you feel strong and you feel ready to stop Standing. And if the statistic is about how many MLCers want to reconcile—how was that sort of data gathered? Often those with regrets do not verbalize them and they may not even acknowledge them to themselves for many years. MLC lasts 2-7 years, but some may not admit regrets until years after that after they are experiencing the full consequences of divorce on themselves and their children.

So let’s change the odds! That is one of the goals I have for us at this site. Let’s increase the rate of reconciliation. It starts with each of you. But we need to begin at reality; the odds of reconciliation are lower than we want them to be. Right now we are still new and the Stander’s movement is tiny. The message of The Hero’s Spouse has not reached far and wide yet. The forum is not quite 2 years old—though many of you were a few years post-Bomb Drop when we started. Our rates are not high…yet. In fact right now a lot of you are basing your hope on that low rate and allowing it to destroy your hope.

Tomorrow I will continue this topic.